Tomorrow's Jobs
This is a section of the 1994-95 OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK HANDBOOK
produced by the US Dept. of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Access to this document is provided courtesy of the Libraries of
the University of Missouri - St. Louis
Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics develops
projections
of the labor force, economic growth, industry output and
employment, and occupational employment under three sets of
alternative assumptions low, moderate, and high. These
projections
cover a 10- to 15-year period and provide a framework for the
discussion of job outlook in each occupational statement in the
Handbook. All of the approximately 250 statements in this edition
of the Handbook identify the principal factors affecting job
prospects, then discuss how these factors are expected to affect
the occupation. This chapter uses the moderate alternative of
each
projection to provide a framework for the individual job outlook
discussions.
Population Trends
Employment opportunities are affected by population trends in
several ways. Changes in the size and composition of the
population between 1992 and 2005 will influence the demand for
goods and services. For example, the population aged 85 and over
will grow about four times as fast as the total population,
increasing the demand for health services. Population changes
also
produce corresponding changes in the size and characteristics of
the labor force.
The U.S. civilian noninstitutional population, aged 16 and over,
is
expected to increase from about 192 to 219 million over the
1992-2005 period growing more slowly than it did during the
previous 13-year period, 1979-92. However, even slower
population
growth will increase the demand for goods and services, as well
as
the demand for workers in many occupations and industries.
The age distribution will shift toward relatively fewer children
and teenagers and a growing proportion of middle-aged and older
people into the 21st century. The decline in the proportion of
teenagers reflects the lower birth rates that prevailed during
the
1980's; the impending large increase in the middle-aged
population
reflects the aging of the baby boom generation born between 1946
and 1964; and the very rapid growth in the number of old people
is
attributable to high birth rates prior to the 1930's, together
with
improvements in medical technology that have allowed most
Americans
to live longer.
Minorities and immigrants will constitute a larger share of the
U.S. population in 2005 than they do today. Substantial increases
in the number of Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks are anticipated,
reflecting immigration, and higher birth rates among Blacks and
Hispanics. Substantial inflows of immigrants will continue to
have
significant implications for the labor force. Immigrants tend to
be
of working age but of different educational and occupational
backgrounds than the U.S. population as a whole.
Population growth varies greatly among geographic regions,
affecting the demand for goods and services and, in turn, workers
in various occupations and industries. Between 1979 and 1992, the
population of the Midwest and the Northeast grew by only 3
percent
and 4 percent, respectively, compared with 19 percent in the
South
and 30 percent in the West. These differences reflect the
movement
of people seeking new jobs or retiring, as well as higher birth
rates in some areas than in others.
Projections by the Bureau of the Census indicate that the West
and
South will continue to be the fastest growing regions, increasing
24 percent and 16 percent, respectively, between 1992 and 2005.
The
Midwest population is expected to grow by 7 percent, while the
number of people in the Northeast is projected to increase by
only
3 percent.
Geographic shifts in the population alter the demand for and the
supply of workers in local job markets. Moreover, in areas
dominated by one or two industries, local job markets may be
extremely sensitive to the economic conditions of those
industries.
For these and other reasons, local employment opportunities may
differ substantially from the projections for the Nation as a
whole
presented in the Handbook. Sources of information on State and
local employment prospects are identified on page 13.
Labor Force Trends
Population is the single most important factor governing the size
and composition of the labor force, which includes people who are
working, or looking for work. The civilian labor force, 127
million
in 1992, is expected to reach 151 million by 2005. This projected
19-percent increase represents a slight slowdown in the rate of
labor force growth, largely due to slower population growth
(chart
2).
America's workers will be an increasingly diverse group as we
move
toward 2005. White non-Hispanic men will make up a slightly
smaller
proportion of the labor force, and women and minority group
members
will comprise a larger share than in 1992. White non-Hispanics
have
historically been the largest component of the labor force, but
their share has been dropping, and is expected to fall from 78
percent in 1992 to 73 percent by 2005. Whites are projected to
grow more slowly than Blacks, Asians, and others, but because of
their size, whites will experience the largest numerical
increase.
Hispanics will add about 6.5 million workers to the labor force
from 1992 to 2005, increasing by 64 percent. Despite this
dramatic
growth, Hispanics' share of the labor force will only increase
from
8 percent to 11 percent, as shown in chart 3. Blacks, Hispanics,
and Asians and other racial groups will account for roughly 35
percent of all labor force entrants between 1992 and 2005.
Women will continue to join the labor force in growing numbers.
The
percentage increase of women in the labor force between 1992 and
2005 will be larger than the percentage increase in the total
labor
force, but smaller than the percentage increase for women in the
previous 13-year period. In the late 1980's, the labor force
participation of women under age 40 began to increase more slowly
than in the past. Women were only 42 percent of the labor force
in
1979; by 2005, they are expected to constitute 48 percent.
The changing age structure of the population will directly affect
tomorrow's labor force. Compared to young workers, the pool of
experienced workers will increase. In 1992, the median age of the
labor force was 37.2 years; by 2005, it will be 40.5 years.
Between 1979 and 1992, the youth labor force (16 to 24 years of
age) dropped by 5 million, a 20-percent decline. In contrast, the
number of youths in the labor force will increase by 3.7 million
over the 1992-2005 period, reflecting an increase of 18 percent,
compared to 19 percent growth for the total labor force. As a
result, young people are expected to comprise roughly the same
percentage of the labor force in 2005 as in 1992. Among youths,
the
teenage labor force (16 to 19 years of age) will increase by 31
percent over the 1992-2005 period, a numerical increase of 2.1
million. The labor force 20 to 24 years of age is projected to
increase by 12 percent, a numerical increase of 1.6 million. The
total youth labor force accounted for 24 percent of the entire
labor force in 1979, fell to 16 percent in 1992, and should stay
about the same through 2005.
The scenario should be somewhat different for prime-age workers
(25
to 54 years of age). The baby boom generation will continue to
add
members to the labor force, but their share of the labor force
peaked in 1985. These workers accounted for 62 percent of the
labor
force in 1979, and rose significantly to 72 percent in 1992, but
should decline slightly to 70 percent by 2005. The proportion of
workers in the 25-34 age range will decline dramatically, from 28
percent to 21 percent in 2005. On the other hand, the growing
proportion of workers between the ages of 45 and 54 is equally
striking. These workers should account for 24 percent of the
labor
force by the year 2005, up from 18 percent in 1992. Because
workers
in their mid-forties to mid-fifties usually have substantial work
experience and tend to be more stable than younger workers, this
could result in improved productivity and a larger pool of
experienced applicants from which employers may choose.
The number of older workers, aged 55 and above, is projected to
grow about twice as fast as the total labor force between 1992
and
2005, and about 15 times as fast as the number of workers aged 55
and above grew between 1979 and 1992. As the baby boomers grow
older, the number of workers aged 55 to 64 will increase; they
exhibit higher labor force participation than their older
counterparts. By 2005, workers aged 55 and over will comprise 14
percent of the labor force, up from 12 percentin 1992.
In recent years, the level of educational attainment of the labor
force has risen dramatically. In 1992, 27 percent of all workers
aged 25 and over had a bachelor's degree or higher, while only 12
percent did not possess a high school diploma. The trend toward
higher educational attainment is expected to continue. Projected
rates of employment growth are faster for occupations requiring
higher levels of education or training than for those requiring
less.
Three out of the 4 fastest growing occupational groups will be
executive, administrative, and managerial; professional
specialty;
and technicians and related support occupations. These
occupations
generally require the highest levels of education and skill, and
will make up an increasing proportion of new jobs. Office and
factory automation, changes in consumer demand, and movement of
production facilities to offshore locations are expected to cause
employment to stagnate or decline in many occupations that
require
little formal education apparel workers and textile machinery
operators, for example. Opportunities for those who do not finish
high school will be increasingly limited, and workers who are not
literate may not even be considered for most jobs.
Those who do not complete high school and are employed are more
likely to have low paying jobs with little advancement potential,
while workers in occupations requiring higher levels of education
have higher incomes. In addition, many of the occupations
projected
to grow most rapidly between 1992 and 2005 are among those with
higher earnings.
Nevertheless, even slower growing occupations that have a large
number of workers will provide many job openings, because the
need
to replace workers who leave the labor force or transfer to other
occupations account for most job openings. Consequently, workers
with all levels of education and training will continue to be in
demand, although advancement opportunities generally will be best
for those with the most education and training.
Employment Change
Total employment is expected to increase from 121.1 million in
1992
to 147.5 million in 2005, or by 22 percent. The 26.4 million jobs
that will be added to the U.S. economy by 2005 will not be evenly
distributed across major industrial and occupational groups,
causing some restructuring of employment. Continued faster than
average employment growth among occupations that require
relatively
high levels of eduction or training is expected. The following
two
sections examine projected employment change from both industrial
and occupational perspectives. The industrial profile is
discussed
in terms of wage and salary employment, except for agriculture,
forestry, and fishing, which includes self-employed and unpaid
family workers. The occupational profile is viewed in terms of
total employment (wage and salary, self-employed, and unpaid
family
workers).
Industrial Profile
The long-term shift from goods-producing to service-producing
employment is expected to continue (chart 5). For example,
service-producing industries, including transportation,
communications, and utilities; retail and wholesale trade;
services; government; and finance, insurance, and real estate are
expected to account for approximately 24.5 million of the 26.4
million job growth over the 1992-2005 period. In addition, the
services division within this sector which includes health,
business, and educational services contains 15 of the 20 fastest
growing industries. Expansion of service sector employment is
linked to a number of factors, including changes in consumer
tastes
and preferences, legal and regulatory changes, advances in
science
and technology, and changes in the way businesses are organized
and
managed. Specific factors responsible for varying growth
prospects
in major industry divisions are discussed below.
Service-Producing Industries
Services. Services is both the largest and the fastest growing
division within the service-producing sector (chart 6). This
division provided 38.6 million jobs in 1992; employment is
expected
to rise 40 percent to 54.2 million by 2005, accounting for almost
two-thirds of all new jobs. Jobs will be found in small firms
and
in large corporations, and in industries as diverse as
hospitals,data processing, and management consulting. Health
services and business services are projected to continue to grow
very fast.
In addition, social, legal, and engineering and management
services
industries further illustrate this division's strong growth.
Health services will continue to be one of the fastest growing
industries in the economy with employment increasing from 9.6 to
13.8 million. Improvements in medical technology, and a growing
and aging population will increase the demand for health
services.
Employment in home health care services the second fastest
growing
industry in the economy nursing homes, and offices and clinics of
physicians and other health practitioners is projected to
increase
rapidly. However, not all health industries will grow at the
same
rate. Despite being the largest health care industry, hospitals
will grow more slowly than most other health services industries.
Business services industries also will generate many jobs.
Employment is expected to grow from 5.3 million in 1992 to 8.3
million in 2005. Personnel supply services, made up primarily of
temporary help agencies, is the largest sector in this group and
will increase by 57 percent, from 1.6 to 2.6 million jobs.
However, due to the slowdown in labor force participation by
young
women, and the proliferation of personnel supply firms in recent
years, this industry will grow more slowly than during the
1979-92
period. Business services also includes one of the fastest
growing
industries in the economy, computer and data processing services.
This industry's rapid growth stems from advances in technology,
world wide trends toward office and factory automation, and
increases in demand from business firms, government agencies, and
individuals.
Education is expected to add 2.8 million jobs to the 9.7 million
in
1992. This increase reflects population growth and, in turn,
rising enrollments projected for elementary, secondary, and
postsecondary schools. The elementary school age population
(ages
5-13) will rise by 2.8 million between 1992 and 2005, the
secondary
school age (14-17) by 3.4 million, and the traditional
postsecondary school age (18-24) by 2.2 million. In addition,
continued rising enrollments of older, foreign, and part-time
students are expected to enhance employment in postsecondary
education. Not all of the increase in employment in education,
however, will be for teachers; teacher aides, counselors, and
administrative staff also are projected to increase.
Employment in social services is expected to increase by 1.7
million, bringing the total to 3.7 million by 2005, reflecting
the
growing elderly population. For example, residential care
institutions, which provide around-the-clock assistance to older
persons and others who have limited ability for self-care, is
projected to be the fastest growing industry in the U.S. economy.
Other social services industries that are projected to grow
rapidly
include child daycare services and individual and miscellaneous
social services, which includes elderly daycare and family social
services.
Wholesale and retail trade. Employment in wholesale and retail
trade is expected to rise by 19 and 23 percent, respectively;
from
6 to 7.2 million in wholesale trade and from 19.3 to 23.8 million
in retail trade. Spurred by higher levels of personal income,
the
fastest projected job growth in retail trade is in apparel and
accessory stores, and appliance, radio, television, and music
stores. Substantial numerical increases in retail employment are
anticipated in large industries, including eating and drinking
places, food stores, automotive dealers and service stations, and
general merchandise stores.
Finance, insurance, and real estate. Employment is expected to
increase by 21 percent adding 1.4 million jobs to the 1992 level
of
6.6 million. The strong demand for financial services is
expected
to continue. Bank mergers, consolidations, and closings
resulting
from overexpansion and competition from nonbank corporations that
offer bank-like services are expected to limit job growth among
commercial banks and savings and loan associations. The fastest
growing industries within this sector are expected to be holding
and investment offices and mortgage bankers and brokers.
Insurance
agents, brokers, and services is expected to register the largest
numerical increase in jobs.
Transportation, communications, and public utilities. Overall
employment will increase by 14 percent. Employment in the
transportation sector is expected to increase by 24 percent, from
3.5 to 4.3 million jobs. Truck transportation will account for
50
percent of all new jobs; air transportation will account for 29
percent. The projected gains in transportation jobs reflect the
continued shift from rail to road freight transportation, rising
personal incomes, and growth in foreign trade. In addition,
deregulation in the transportation industry has increased
personal
and business travel options, spurring strong job growth in the
passenger transportation arrangement industry, which includes
travel agencies. Reflecting laborsaving technology and industry
competition, employment in communications is projected to decline
by 12 percent. Employment in utilities, however, is expected to
grow, adding 117,000 new jobs, highlighted by strong growth in
water supply and sanitary services.
Government. Between 1992 and 2005, government employment,
excluding public education and public hospitals, is expected to
increase 10 percent, from 9.5 million to 10.5 million jobs.
Growth
will be driven by State and local government. Employment in the
Federal Government and U.S. Postal Service is expected to
decline
by 113,000 and 41,000 jobs, respectively.
Goods-Producing Industries
Employment in this sector has not recovered from the recessionary
period of the early 1980's and the trade imbalances that began in
the mid-1980's. Although overall employment in goods-producing
industries is expected to show little change, growth
prospectswithin the sector vary considerably.
Construction. Construction is expected to increase by 26 percent
from 4.5 to 5.6 million. The need to improve the Nation's
infrastructure, resulting in increases in road, bridge, and
tunnel
construction, will offset the slowdown in demand for new housing,
reflecting the slowdown in population growth and the
overexpansion
of office building construction in recent years.
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing. After declining for many
decades, overall employment in agriculture, forestry, and fishing
is projected to grow by 14 percent, from 1.7 million to 2 million
jobs. Strong growth in agricultural services will more than
offset
an expected continued decline in crops, livestock and livestock
products.
Manufacturing. Manufacturing employment is expected to decline
by
3 percent from the 1992 level of 18 million. The projected loss
of
manufacturing jobs reflects productivity gains achieved from
increased investment in manufacturing technologies.
The composition of manufacturing employment is expected to shift
since most of the jobs that will disappear are production jobs.
On
the other hand, the number of professional positions in
manufacturing firms will increase.
Mining. Mining employment is expected to decline 11 percent from
631,000 to 562,000. Underlying this projection is the assumption
that domestic oil production will drop and oil imports will rise,
reducing employment in the crude petroleum industry. In
addition,
employment in coal mining should continue to decline sharply due
to
the expanded use of laborsaving machinery.
Occupational Profile
Continued expansion of the service-producing sector conjures up
an
image of a work force dominated by cashiers, retail sales
workers,
and waiters. Although service sector growth will generate
millions
of these jobs, it also will create jobs for financial managers,
engineers, nurses, electrical and electronics technicians, and
many
other managerial, professional, and technical workers. As
indicated earlier, the fastest growing occupations will be those
that require the most formal education and training.
This section furnishes an overview of projected employment in 12
categories or clusters of occupations based on the Standard
Occupational Classification (SOC). The SOC is used by all
Federal
agencies that collect occupational employment data, and is the
organizational framework for grouping statements in the Handbook.
In the discussion that follows, projected employment change is
described as growing faster, slower, or the same as the average
for
all occupations. (These phrases are explained on page 2.) While
occupations that are growing fast generally offer good
opportunities, the numerical change in employment also is
important
because large occupations, such as retail sales workers, may
offer
many more new jobs than a small, fast-growing occupation, such as
paralegals (chart 7). For a more detailed discussion of
occupational growth, see the discussion of job outlook in an
earlier chapter, Keys to Understanding What's in the Handbook.
Professional specialty occupations. Workers in these occupations
perform a wide variety of duties, and are employed in almost
every
industry. Employment in this cluster is expected to grow by 37
percent, from 16.6 to 22.8 million jobs, making it the fastest
growing occupational cluster in the economy (chart 8). Human
services workers, computer scientists and systems analysts,
physical therapists, special education teachers, and operations
research analysts are among the fastest growing professional
specialty occupations.
Service occupations. This group includes a wide range of workers
in protective services, food and beverage preparation, health
services, and cleaning and personal services. Employment in
these
occupations is expected to grow by 33 percent, faster than
average,
from 19.4 to 25.8 million. Service occupations that are expected
to experience both fast growth and large job growth include
homemaker-home health aides, nursing aides, child care workers,
guards, and correction officers.
Technicians and related support occupations. Workers in this
group
provide technical assistance to engineers, scientists,
physicians,
and other professional workers, as well as operate and program
technical equipment. Employment in this cluster is expected to
increase 32 percent, faster than average, from 4.3 to 5.7
million.
Employment of paralegals is expected to increase much faster than
average as use of these workers in the rapidly expanding legal
services industry increases. Health technicians and
technologists,
such as licensed practical nurses and radiological technologists,
will add large numbers of jobs. Growth in other occupations,
such
as broadcast technicians, will be limited by laborsaving
technological advances.
Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Workers in
this cluster establish policies, make plans, determine staffing
requirements, and direct the activities of businesses, government
agencies, and other organizations. Employment in this cluster is
expected to increase by 26 percent, from 12.1 to 15.2 million,
reflecting average growth. Growth will be spurred by the
increasing number and complexity of business operations and
result
in large employment gains, especially in the services industry
division. However, many businesses will streamline operations by
employing fewer managers, thus offsetting increases in
employment.
Like other occupations, changes in managerial and administrative
employment reflect industry growth, and utilization of managers
and
administrators. For example, employment of health services
managers will grow much faster than average, while wholesale and
retail buyers are expected to grow more slowly than average.
Hiring requirements in many managerial and administrative jobs
are
becoming more stringent. Work experience, specialized training,
or
graduate study will be increasingly necessary. Familiarity wit
computers will continue to be important as a growing number of
firms rely on computerized management information systems.
Transportation and material moving occupations. Workers in this
cluster operate the equipment used to move people and equipment.
Employment in this group is expected to increase by 22 percent,
from 4.7 to 5.7 million jobs. Average growth is expected for bus
drivers, reflecting rising school enrollments. Similar growth is
expected for truck drivers and railroad transportation workers
due
to growing demand for transportation services. Technological
improvements and automation should result in material moving
equipment operators increasing more slowly than the average.
Water transportation workers are projected to show little change
in
employment as technological advances increase productivity.
Construction trades and extractive occupations. Workers in this
group construct, alter, and maintain buildings and other
structures, and operate drilling and mining equipment. Overall
employment in this group is expected to increase 21 percent,
about
as fast as average, from 3.7 to 4.5 million. Virtually all of
the
new jobs will be in construction. Spurred by new projects and
alterations to existing structures, average employment growth is
expected in construction. On the other hand, increased
automation,
continued stagnation in the oil and gas industries, and slow
growth
in demand for coal, metal, and other materials will result a
decline in employment of extractive workers.
Marketing and sales occupations. Workers in this cluster sell
goods and services, purchase commodities and property for resale,
and stimulate consumer interest. Employment in this cluster is
projected to increase by 21 percent, from 13 to 15.7 million
jobs,
about as fast as average. Demand for travel agents is expected
to
grow much faster than average. Due to strong growth in the
industries that employ them, services sales representatives,
securities and financial services sales workers, and real estate
appraisers will experience faster than average growth. Many
part-and full-time job openings are expected for retail sales
workers and cashiers due to the large size and high turnover
associated with these occupations. Opportunities for higher
paying
sales jobs, however, will tend to be more competitive.
Helpers, laborers, and material movers. Workers in this group
assist skilled workers and perform routine, unskilled tasks.
Overall employment is expected to increase by 17 percent, about
as
fast as average, from 4.5 to 5.2 million jobs. Some routine
tasks
will become increasingly automated, limiting employment growth
among machine feeders and offbearers. Employment of service
station attendants will decline, reflecting the trend toward
self-service gas stations. Employment of construction laborers,
however, is expected to increase about as fast as average,
reflecting growth in the construction industry.
Mechanics, installers, and repairers. These workers adjust,
maintain, and repair automobiles, industrial equipment,
computers,
and many other types of equipment. Overall employment in these
occupations is expected to grow by 16 percent, from 4.8 to 5.6
million, due to increased use of mechanical and electronic
equipment. The fastest growing occupation in this group is
expected to be data processing equipment repairers, reflecting
the
increased use of these types of machines. Communications
equipment
mechanics, installers, and repairers, and telephone and cable
television line installers and repairers, in sharp contrast, are
expected to record a decline in employment due to laborsaving
advances.
Administrative support occupations, including clerical. Workers
in
this largest major occupational group perform a wide variety of
administrative tasks necessary to keep organizations functioning
smoothly. The group as a whole is expected to grow by 14
percent,
from 22.3 to 25.4 million jobs, about as fast as the average.
Technological advances are projected to slow employment growth
for
stenographers and typists and word processors. Receptionists and
information clerks will grow faster than average, spurred by
rapidly expanding industries such as business services. Because
of
their large size and substantial turnover, clerical occupations
will offer abundant opportunities for qualified jobseekers in the
years ahead.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations. Workers
in
these occupations cultivate plants, breed and raise livestock,
and
catch animals. Although demand for food, fiber, and wood is
expected to increase as the world's population grows, the use of
more productive farming and forestry methods and the
consolidation
of smaller farms are expected to result in only a 3-percent
increase in employment, from 3.5 to 3.6 million jobs. Employment
of farm operators and farm workers is expected to rapidly
decline,
reflecting greater productivity; the need for skilled farm
managers, on the other hand, should result in average employment
growth in that occupation.
Production occupations. Workers in these occupations set up,
install, adjust, operate, and tend machinery and equipment and
use
hand tools to fabricate and assemble products. Little change in
the 1992 employment level of 12.2 million is expected due to
increases in imports, overseas production, and automation.
Relative to other occupations, employment in many production
occupations is more sensitive to the business cycle and
competition
from imports.
Replacement Needs Most jobs through the year 2005 will become
available as a result of replacement needs. Thus, even
occupations
with little or no employment growth or slower than average
employment growth still may offer many job openings.
Replacement openings occur as people leave occupations. Some
transfer to other occupations as a step up the career ladder or
change careers. Others stop working in order to return to
school,
assume household responsibilities, or retire.
The number of replacement openings and the proportion of job
openings made up by replacement needs varies by occupation.
Occupations with the most replacement openings generally are
large,
with low pay and status, low training requirements, and a high
proportion of young and part-time workers. Occupations with
relatively few replacement openings tend to be associated with
high
pay and status, lengthy training requirements, and a high
proportion of prime working age, full-time workers. Workers in
these occupations generally acquire education or training that
often is not applicable to other occupations. For example, among
professional specialty occupations, only 38 percent of total job
opportunities result from replacement needs, as opposed to 78
percent among production occupations (chart 9).
Interested in More Detail?
Readers interested in more information about projections and
detail
on the labor force, economic growth, industry and occupational
employment, or methods and assumptions should consult the
November
1993 Monthly Labor Review or The American Work Force: 1992-2005,
BLS Bulletin 2452. Information on the limitations inherent in
economic projections also can be found in either of these two
publications.
For additional occupational data, as well as statistics on
educational and training completions, see the 1994 edition of
Occupational Projections and Training Data, BLS Bulletin 2451.
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