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NCAA Selection using Monte-Carlo Simulation:
What Kind of a Shot has SJU Got?

Who: Dr. Sean L. Forman, Saint Joseph's University

When and Where: Wednesday, March 17, in Barbelin 226 at 4:00.

Food? Yes, cookies and drinks.

Audience: Anyone with who hopes to dominate their NCAA pool. A mathematical bent wouldn't hurt.

Abstract:
Each year millions of people enter fill out their bracket each March hoping that this will be the year they win the pool. Last year, I decided to use mathematics to improve my selections. I set up a monte carlo simulator to predict the most likely teams to win each game and then submitted my picks based on the simulation results. Despite selecting Kansas in the final game, I was able to finish in the 95th percentile of 640,000 picks on Yahoo!'s tourney pool. I will run through the basic ideas of Monte Carlo simulation, show how the results translate to probabilities and breakdown how the computer views SJU's chances at a Final Four run.

In addition, we will be taking entries in a departmental NCAA tourney pool, to see if you can beat the computer. Prize to be determined.




Presented by the SJU Math and Computer Science Department.

Sean Forman and Jonathan Hodgson, colloquium committee





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Sean Forman