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How Good Are Teams, Really?

• Before we can predict anything about the bracket, we need to be able to model individual games.

• NOTE: Examples are taken from the magical 2004 SJU basketball season

• One possibility: Flip a coin, Heads SJU wins, Tails Liberty wins.

• Should each team win 50% of the time.

• Need to factor in team ability.

• AP Polls, Sagarin ratings, RPI, BCS, ELO are different ways to do this.

• I used the Sagarin Ratings' Predictor rating for the team quality.

• This combines all of the team's games and outcomes into a single number.

• Assumes:
  • Team ability level is consistent for entire season. Injuries, hot streaks, are only relevant as to how they affected past outcomes.

  • Home court affects teams equally.

  • The probability of a team beating another is proportional to the difference in their ratings.

  • All NCAA tourney games are on a neutral court.

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