Modelling Individual Games   <- Talks   <-  Sean Forman   <-  You Are Here

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Playing Some Games

• Some example games from 2003-2004.

• Saint Joseph's versus Xavier on a neutral court. SJU's rating 92.23, Xavier's rating 83.89.

• $${spread = 92.23 - 83.89 = 8.34. f(8.34) = \frac{1}{1 + exp(-0.198 \times 8.34)} = .84 = 84\% }$$

• Duke (96.13) vs. Army (53.51) at home (+4.1)

• $${spread = 96.13 - 53.51 + 4.1 = 47.82. f(47.82) = \frac{1}{1 + exp(-0.198 \times 47.82)} = .99992 = 99.992\% }$$

• Alabama (84.72) vs. Southern Illinois (83.26) on a neutral court.

• $${spread = 84.72 - 83.26 + 0 = 1.46. f(1.46) = \frac{1}{1 + exp(-0.198 \times 1.46)} = .572 = 57.2\% }$$

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