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Is stealing second a good play?

RE 99-02	0	1	2
Empty	0.555	0.297	0.117
1st	0.953	0.573	0.251
2nd	1.189	0.725	0.344
3rd	1.482	0.983	0.387
1st_2nd	1.573	0.971	0.466
1st_3rd	1.904	1.243	0.538
2nd_3rd	2.052	1.467	0.634
Loaded	2.417	1.65	0.815

• Runner on first with no outs. Expected runs is 0.95 runs.

• Successful steal. Runner on second with no outs. Expected runs is 1.19 runs.

• Unsuccessful steal. No one on and one out. Expected runs is 0.30 runs.

• How successful do you need to be to make it worthwhile, what is the breakeven success rate needed?

• $Runs_{success} * P_{breakeven} + Runs_{fail} * (1 - P_{breakeven}) = Runs_{current}$.

• Solving for $P_{breakeven}$ by rearranging, $P_{breakeven} = \par (Runs_{current} - Runs_{fail})/(Runs_{success} - Runs_{fail})$.

• $P_{breakeven} = (0.95 - 0.30)/( 1.19 - 0.30) = 73\%$. So success rate should be over 73% to make it worthwhile. League average is 72%.

• With two outs, $P_{breakeven} = (0.25 - 0.00)/( 0.34 - 0.00) = 73\%$. So success rate should be over 73% to make it worthwhile.

• All of these calculations assume an average hitter at the plate. However, keep in mind that the quality of the hitter affects the expected runs scored in the same direction. All go up or all go down.

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