Determining strategy   <- Talks   <-  Sean Forman   <-  You Are Here

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On a sac fly, what is the cutoff probability for success on attempting to score

RE 99-02	0	1	2
Empty	0.555	0.297	0.117
1st	0.953	0.573	0.251
2nd	1.189	0.725	0.344
3rd	1.482	0.983	0.387
1st_2nd	1.573	0.971	0.466
1st_3rd	1.904	1.243	0.538
2nd_3rd	2.052	1.467	0.634
Loaded	2.417	1.65	0.815

• Only a runner on third.

• Stay at third, two outs and a runner on third.

• Successfully scores: 1 run + 0.12 runs for bases empty two outs.

• Thrown out at home, three outs.

• How successful do you need to be to make it worthwhile?

• $P_{breakeven} = (0.39 - 0.00)/( 1.12 - 0.00) = 35\%$. So success rate should be over 35% to make it worthwhile.

• 2nd and 3rd: $P_{breakeven} = (0.63 - 0.00)/( 1.34 - 0.00) = 47\%$

• 1st and 3rd: $P_{breakeven} = (0.54 - 0.00)/( 1.25 - 0.00) = 43\%$

• Bases Loaded: $P_{breakeven} = (0.82 - 0.00)/( 1.47 - 0.00) = 56\%$

• Same probabilities for stealing home. Never seen because teams saw this happen too much and went to stretch with runners on third.

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