baseball_2006-02-21   <- Talks   <-  Sean Forman   <-  You Are Here

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(some) Ideas important to sabermetrics

• Statistics in baseball are more meaningful than in other sports. few teammate effects

• Very little on the baseball field can not be measured. Except at the fringes

• Statistics are more meaningful than personal observations. Gold Gloves

• A baseball team's goal is to win games.

• There is a clear relationship between winning percentage and runs scored and runs allowed. Predicts White Sox to win 91 games in 2005 (741-645), and Indians to win 96 (790-642).

  $Win Percentage =  \frac{RS^2}{RS^2 + RA^2}$

• Players affect wins and losses by preventing or creating runs.

• If we can measure a player's effect on runs scored or allowed, we can measure how they affect wins and losses.

• Players should be evaluated for what they do, not for what teammates or managers do. Any stats based on teammates?

• A statistic's quality can be determined by how much context will affect it.

• Park effects are very important. Coors vs. PetCo

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